Is the Financial Crisis on Wall Street Causing Fewer Home Sales in Los Gatos?

I have never followed the stock market so much as I have in the last two weeks. [My primary concern is my kids' 529 college savings plan, where the money is all in an index fund (that's how CA has it set up).]And I wondered if Los Gatos home buyers have their downpayments in stocks and may also be holding back, so I took a look at very recent sales data to see if there are any new trends.

From my initial study of the pending sales in Los Gatos and Monte Sereno in the 95030 and 95032 zip codes, it does not appear that a slowdown in buying is happening over & above what we were already experiencing prior to the roller coaster ride on Wall Street.

sales initiated	Houses	Condos
10/1/2008 - 10/11/2008	7	3
10/1/2007 - 10/11/2007	7	3
09/20/2008 - 09/30/2008	4	5
09/20/2007 - 09/30/2007	4	4

It may be that we will see a change in the Los Gatos real estate market that later we'll attribute to the financial catastrophe that is going on, but right now, I'm not seeing it.  Perhaps the Los Gatos and Monte Sereno home buyers have their downpayment readily accessible in cash. (That is the case with my buyers.)

The Fun Continues at the St. Mary's Country Fair in Los Gatos!

The St. Mary's Country Fair in downtown Los Gatos is off to a fantastic start!  Last night the place was hopping to the tunes of the Joe Sharino Band. Tonight it's the Cheeseballs. Come on back!

Today started off a little cool and slow but picked up by 11 or 11:30 or so. The wind died down and it got to be very comfortable, and folks from all over town were there.

The burrito booth ended up being over-staffed, so I was reassigned to work the skee ball booth from 10am to 1pm today. It was a great spot with a clear view of the stage and I saw loads of people I knew there, including Steve Rice, who's running for town council.

What's really neat about working a game booth, though, is being able to interact with kids. One young family came through and their daughter was just too adorable to not photograph (with their permission). I played with the image because unfortunately the toddler's face was shadowed and the groovy sunglasses she's wearing don't show up too well. I think my favorite of the four is the third one in from the left as it's really focused on her.

The Country Fair continues tonight and tomorrow. A petting zoo and pony rides are available again tomorrow from 11am - 3pm.  Enjoy!

Reminder: The St. Mary's Country Fair Begins Tonight at 5pm!

Tonight begins another fun weekend in downtown Los Gatos at the annual St. Mary's Country Fair. (Located on Bean at Tait but also reachable via Lyndon Court off Main Street.)

Starting at 5pm today, there will be rides, food booths, arts & crafts and much more. Free music and dancing both tonight and tomorrow night - no cover charge!

There's something for everyone. Need more info? Please see my other post about the fair.

If you happen to be there on Saturday, stop by and say hello!  I'll be working the burrito booth from 10am - 1pm. Hope to see you there!

Scary Site of Old Cemetery in Los Gatos

The original Los Gatos Cemetery was in an area now covered with shops.  Recently I was in the neighborhood for a haircut and thought I'd videotape the spot where the cemetery used to be.   The scariest thing I encountered, though, was someone's panic-stricken response to missing a rare parking spot!

Going the wrong way on a one way street can be a very expensive mistake. Luckily for this driver, no tickets were to be had that day.

Condos and Townhomes in Los Gatos: Market Update

The condo market in Los Gatos is improving after a few rough months. It remains a buyer's market, but not so deep a one as we saw in late spring and over the summer.

Although days on the market for Los Gatos condos and townhomes are considerably longer than they were a month or a year ago (78 days in Sept vs 32 in Aug and 33 a year ago), and the list price to sales price ratio is slipping (96.4% in Sept vs 98.7% in Aug and 99.2% in Sept 2007), there are some signs of improvement.  The number of homes on the market is the same, 44, as last month, but the number of closed sales has risen from 6 in August to 8 in September.

Surprisingly, the sales prices are up too (both average and median), both for month over month and year over year. Here are those numbers (care of The Real Estate Report, a subscription I have):

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2008	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$850,000	$700,000 (+21.4%)	$800,000 (+6.3%)
Average Price	$768,021	$619,167 (+24.0%)	$741,417 (+3.6%)

And finally, one of the most helpful ways of understanding the market is the absorption rate, which may be calculated as days, weeks, or months of inventory. It's a reflection of how long it would take to sell off the current inventory if no new homes came on the market and homes continued to sell at the present rate. Below, please find the months of inventory for condos and townhomes in Los Gatos. NB that there is recent improvement in the numbers:

Next, here's a view of the condo and single family home market of Los Gatos side-by-side:

 If you'd like more information on how the Los Gatos townhome and Los Gatos condo market are faring, please visit my Real Estate Report for an interactive online report for all of the Silicon Valley real estate market.
 

Please call me if you'd like a private consultation about your real estate questions, plans, and hopes.


 

Los Gatos Single Family Home Absorption Rates and Market Conditions

The Los Gatos real estate market for single family homes is a bit of a mixed bag, with some indicators more positive than others, but on the whole, it's a deepening buyers market.

Below, please see the basic sales data on the closed single family homes in Los Gatos for September 2008. Note that saes are up, but days on market are longer, prices are mostly down (except the year over year average sp), and the list price to sales price ratio is dropping.

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2008	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$1,205,000	$1,389,980 (-13.3%)	$1,280,000 (-5.9%)
Average Price	$1,609,960	$1,669,850 (-3.6%)	$1,346,230 (+19.6%)
No. of Sales	27	22 (+22.7%)	17 (+58.8%)
Active	170	138 (+23.2%)	106 (+60.4%)
Sale vs. List Price	94.9%	96.5% (-1.7%)	97.6% (-2.8%)
Days on Market	71	51 (+39.0%)	44 (+61.3%)

A good way to judge the market overall is by crunching the numbers to get the months of inventory (or days, or weeks of inventory), also known as the absorption rate. Next, please view the Los Gatos area (including Monte Sereno and some parts of Cambrian Park and possibly Campbell) known as "area 16" in our MLS.  This lines up almost exactly with Los Gatos and the zip codes 95032 and 95030:

As you can well see, it is going to take more and more time to sell off the current inventory of single family homes in the Los Gatos area. In fact, it is a strong trend that the buyers market has been deepening. The National Association of Realtors says that 6 months or less is a sellers market, but more than 6 months is a buyers market. We had a little dip in May through July where the sellers were under that threshold, but for the most part, it has not been much of a year for sellers in Los Gatos.

In most times, it's very challenging for buyers to purchase a home in Los Gatos as there are often multiple offers and high demands from the sellers. Buyers, now is your chance to get in at a reasonable time!  Sellers, if you want to sell, make your home gorgous and price it competitively!

To learn more, please visit my Real Estate Report online, an interactive monthly report that provides information for all of Santa Clara County, including Saratoga, Monte Sereno, Campbell, Almaden Valley, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, etc., and separated by single family homes and condominiums and townhomes.

Howling Halloween Dog Parade in Los Gatos Oct 24th

Society Dog is once again sponsoring the Howling Halloween dog parade in downtown Los Gatos, which is a fun fundraiser to support the K9 unit of the Los Gatos Monte Sereno Police Department. This year it is on Friday, October 24th from 6-9 pm with registration starting at 5:30pm outside of Borders in Old Town Los Gatos. Or, if you register online, there's a discount!

To register online, to view the prizes, and to learn more about this event, please see the Society Dog's webpage devoted to Howling Halloween. If you want to help, or have questions, they'd love to talk with you on their yelp line, 408-671-3417, or email them at helpdog@societydog.com.

Need a place to buy a costume? I spotted a number of them at the downtown Los Gatos Petco store (444 N Santa Cruz Ave).  And that costume is reusable too, as the very next day, there's a pet costume contest at Petco in Los Gatos  (and apparently every other Petco, but verify it before showing up) at 2pm too!